The LA Fires: Interim Report
by Rick Campbell
An Oregon writer,
We are now about two months out from the disastrous Palasades and Eaton fires which struck Altadena, Pacific Palasades, and parts of Pasadena and Malibu, California. The ashes are barely cool, and final reports are many years away. But we can now look at some causes, effects, and perhaps learn something.
We are an advanced civilization, with thousands of years experience in building cities and fighting fires. How could things go so wrong?
What happened? A series of small fires merged into one large fire.
Was it preventable? Of course. It was the result of six factors interacting to create the perfect fire storm.
First, weather. Southern California is an arid region which has occasional rains and then the hot dry Santa Ana winds every winter. Some years the winds are stronger than others, but they are God-given and entirely predictable.
Second, native vegetation. When the rains come, the grass and under-brush grow and then dry out. Naturally, every few years the fuel load builds up and catches fire.
When the Spanish came to California nearly 500 years ago, they recognized this pattern, and turned Southern California into a giant cattle ranch. They built their adobe haciendas away from the under-brush, and when the fires came, no one was hurt.
Today, we can reduce the natural fuel load two ways: controlled burning or manual cutting. But the environmentalists didn’t like the smoke, so they made it hard to get burning permits from the city, county, state, California Coastal Commission and six Federal agencies.
Two years ago, Fire Chief Kristen Crowley (since fired) asked Mayor Karen Bass to establish professional brush clearing teams. She was refused. In December 2024, the brush fuel load was at record levels. You could blame the mayor, you could blame environmentalists, you could blame the bureaucracy.
The next factor is urban density. In 1900, Los Angeles was a sleepy town with little potential. Then, a consortium led by William Mulholland managed to build an aqueduct to bring water from the Owens Valley. Suburbs sprang up.
Some, like Beverly Hills, had large lots, wide setbacks, open spaces and green manicured lawns. Very defensible against brush fires.
But the more affordable suburbs like Altadena were platted to 1920s standards: smaller lots, less setbacks, electric wires on poles, a basic water system, and streets designed for 1920s traffic.
It was adequate for a century ago, and then the growth came. The movie industry. Dust bowl refugees. Defense industries. More cars. More infill housing built on the brushy hillsides and in the canyons. It became high density.
You can blame the city fathers, planners, realtors, builders and home buyers. There is plenty of blame to go around.
Then there is the matter of construction materials. Humans know how to build fire-resistant structures. The Pantheon in Rome is concrete and two thousand years old. Carcasson, France, is built of stone and Sienna, Italy, built of brick: both cities are over a thousand years old.
We know that cementitious stucco over a wood frame with tile roofing will also resist a brush fire well.
But throughout the LA fire zone were affordable homes: wood frames, wood siding, EIFS plastic stucco, wood decks, with roofing of shakes, shingles or asphalt composition.
They don’t resist burning embers long, especially if there are plenty of combustible materials near the structure. Once the brush caught fire, structures and vehicles provided the secondary fuel.
Next is urban firefighting. We know how to do it. The fundamental principle is rapid response, to keep small fires from merging into large fires. The key is neighborhood fire stations, staffed 24-7 with trained firefighters and the best equipment.
In 2024, Mayor Karen Bass had cut the LAFD budget by $17 million dollars, and 100 fire engines were out of service awaiting repairs. Fire Chief Crowley gave a public warning. Mayor Bass denies these numbers and has fired Crowley.
But no one expected that people fleeing the fires would abandon their cars. The fire engines which were operational could not get through– a bitter surprise.
Finally we have to look at the LA water system. It is a century old, and is stressed by the demands of both environmentalists and city rate payers. The dirty little secret is that is was never designed for a worst case scenario– suddenly, Altadena had 100 active fires called in at once. The upper reservoirs were quickly drained. It was a system designed for 1920, and not upgraded to handle urban growth.
So there’s the perfect fire storm: wind, underbrush fuel, population density, combustible materials, underfunded fire department and an archaic water system. All it took was a spark to set it off, exact cause to be determined.
The tally right now is 29 deaths, 35,000 acres and 17,000 structures burned with insured losses of $75 billion, and an eco-nomic impact of perhaps twice that.
What else do we know for sure?
We know that the entire country will pay part of the price. First, taxpayers will pay for federal disaster and FEMA funding. Second, all building materials will go up in price nationwide. And finally, all property insurance rates will go up. That much is certain.
What we don’t know is a bigger concern.
First, we don’t know how many people are underinsured. Some experts say 70 percent. Therefore, we don’t know how many owners will default and walk away. And therefore, we don’t know how the area’s banks and mortgage companies will be hurt. You can be sure they will ask for federal assistance.
Second, we don’t know how California will cope with its insurance crisis. State Farm, the state’s largest insurer has depleted its reserves and has asked for an immediate 20% rate increase. The California insurance pool, FAIR, has demanded $1 billion from the state’s insurance companies.
Third, we don’t know the full story about vehicle fires, and I have been searching for official figures for two months. Why is this important? Because California demands the conversion to all-electric vehicles by 2035. So it is reasonable to ask: What is the comparative fire danger between internal combustion engine cars and electric vehicles (EVs).
When a conventional car catches fire, it can be smothered with foam. If not, it consumes the gasoline in the tank, the tires, plastics and upholstery. It usually burns out within thirty minutes.
An EV burns differently. A typical battery pack weighs 1,000 pounds and contains hundreds of small lithium ion cells. Hybrid vehicles have a similar but small-er battery pack.
When a battery pack reaches an internal temperature of 266 degrees F, the separator strip between cathode and anode melts causing an internal short circuit and thermal runaway. The cell catches fire and quickly rises to about 1,500 degrees F.
The battery pack can burn for more than 24 hours before all the cells are consumed.
The fire is exogenic, that is, creates its own oxygen, so it cannot be extinguished with foam. Typically, more than 20,000 gallons of cooling water are required to put it out.
While it burns it emits deadly toxic gases: lithium oxide, hydrogen flouride, carbon monoxide, and hydrogen chloride.
When consumed the battery ash becomes toxic waste, containing lithium, arsenic, nickel, aluminum and cobalt, requiring removal of six inches of topsoil. It must be collected by a hazmat team and trans-ported to a lined hazardous waste dump.
No one has stated the number of EVs consumed. Why not? Apparently, they don’t want the public to know. But they know.
Here’s my calculation: There are 431,000 EVs registered in LA. Let’s assume 10 percent are domiciled in the fire area, about 40,000, and that 90 percent of those escaped. That would mean approximately
4,000 EVs burned, which is in line with the 1,400 cleanups in Lahaina, Maui in 2023.
EPA Incident Commander Steve Canalog did admit: “this is the largest lithium-ion battery pickup, cleanup, that’s ever hap-pended in the history of the world.”
EPA Administrator Lee Zelden has stated that the cleanup involves 13,000 proper-ties, which may include EVs, hybrids, garage chemicals, and industrial sites. We will have to wait for the final numbers. My point is this:
Each EV battery pack is a 1,000 pound fire bomb just waiting to become a superfund site, no matter what the exact figures.
Make no mistake, the LA fires were not the result of accidental events. They were the result of deliberate human policies and mismanagement over many decades.
In their naive efforts to save the planet, Californians created the largest environmental disaster in American history.
As Puck said in a Midsummer Night’s Dream, “Lord, what fools these mortals be.”
Rick Campbell is an Oregon writer.
